Trends for 2009: Cloud Computing, Virtualization and BitTorrent
“Profound movements in computer and Internet use.”
by Jack Dunning
I've selected three movements in computer and Internet use that I feel will have profound influence in the next year on how we go about computing. One year ago, I would have been hard-pressed to define any of these concepts or techniques—although they all began a number of years back.
The first trend, cloud computing, is a metaphor for the evolution of the Internet in our lives—and how it is likely to continue. Virtualization, or virtual machines (not as in virtual reality), is a technique for making one computer into many. BitTorrent is a file-distribution system that is revolutionizing how software, music and videos are downloaded.
Cloud Computing
Cloud computing is a metaphor for computing in cyberspace. It is based upon either the concept of the complex diagrams of Internet services that look like a cloud, or the idea that using the Internet for applications is like computing in the clouds of cyberspace. In any case, the term is coming into common use to describe an obvious trend in computing that attracts investment from all the major players, including Microsoft and Google.
Cloud computing is replacing the term Web 2.0, which was generated to describe the changing nature of the function of the Internet. Not being a metaphor, but rather a technical label implying a new release of the Web (which it isn't), the term Web 2.0 is fading into obscurity. (Computer people prefer visualizations, such as clouds, for trends—for example, "surfing the Web.")
The essence of the concept of cloud computing is the use of the Internet as the primary source for computer applications and data storage. The cloud movement is a step away from buying individual software packages for each individual computer, and then storing the documents locally, and a movement toward doing it all in the "clouds" of the Internet. Cyberspace becomes the focus of all computing: e-mail, word processing, graphics manipulation, video sharing, and any type of interpersonal networking.
There is no doubt that this is the direction that's being heavily promoted by the major players. Microsoft is investing heavily in Windows Live (home.live.com). Although Microsoft's efforts seem a little disjointed, it's apparent that the goal is for cooperation, via the Web, to become the center of everyone's computing, whether personal or business.
Microsoft Office Live (www.officelive.com/) offers free online file storage and includes systems for small businesses (with monthly fees), such as setting up a Web site. It offers Web applications, such as a contact manager for sales, a document manager for storage, version tracking of files, work spaces for sharing information over the Internet, and project-management software. Notably, the applications do not include packages that might cannibalize Microsoft Office software. The Home version of Windows Live (home.live.com/allservices.aspx/?mkt=en-us) is oriented toward the activities that people may desire on a personal level. Sharing with friends has been a major emphasis in an attempt to compete with MySpace. The appropriately named SkyDrive is an online file-storage system that can be shared with friends.
Google is taking on Microsoft head-to-head with its own versions of cyberspace computing. Google, always an Internet-based company, is the quintessential definition of a cloud-computing company. It offers Google Apps (www.google.com/apps/), which include many of the same features as Microsoft Live, plus Google has included word processing, spreadsheet and presentation software in Google Docs (docs.google.com) to compete with Microsoft Office.
The concept of cloud computing dictates that peer interaction, file storage and sharing, communications and most other personal and/or business applications will be Web-based. Users will be free to move to new locations, and they will be able to continue with their computing life safely stored on the Internet servers—accessible from anywhere.
Virtualization Software (or Virtual Machines)
The second trend that we will see grow in the coming year is virtualization software, which maximizes the use of the ever-increasing power of computer hardware. Simply put, virtualization is using software to place multiple computers (virtual machines) on a single computer. This is not the same as having a dual-boot system, such as a Mac that can load Windows. A virtual machine is a complete version of a computer system coexisting, and running simultaneously, with another system on the same computer hardware. It is both (or all), rather than being either/or. Each virtual machine is a completely self-contained system sharing the same hardware, while running independently and not interfering with any other virtual machine on the computer.
Richard, a fan of virtual machines and an IT professional, says, "Virtualization is also about separating the software from the hardware. A VM can be rebooted without rebooting other VMs on that machine. It can be transferred to another machine as easy as copying a file. In the pay versions, you can transfer the VM to another machine without any downtime for the VM. This is great for load balancing across hardware. You can make an image of an OS as easily as copying a file. The quick adoption of this technology over the last two years has been staggering, and it will change the way data centers are run, making them more efficient space-wise, time-wise and energy-wise. It's cool stuff. It has the potential to solve so many annoying IT problems and waste areas that I can't help but be excited."
The advantages to this type of setup are numerous. First, multiple operating systems may run simultaneously on the same computer. This makes hardware utilization more efficient. Plus if one virtual machine crashes (as long as it's not hardware), the other VMs will keep humming away.
Second, in the past, if we wanted to put multiple Web sites on the same server, it had to be done via setup in the Web server software. This complicated the setup process, plus all the affiliated sites were susceptible to any malfunctions of the single software package. VMware makes it possible to set up a separate, single computer system for each Web site with no interaction or dependency upon the other VMs, although all in the same hardware.
As the power and capacity of computer hardware continues to grow, virtualization will save both space and hardware costs. Rather than purchasing a new computer, a VM can be added to an existing system.
While there are many companies that produce virtualization software, VMware (www.vmware.com/) has become synonymous with the trend, even offering a free version (www.vmware.com/products/esxi/). Sun Microsystems offers VirtualBox (www.virtualbox.org/) free as an open-source product that runs on Windows, Linux, Macintosh and OpenSolaris hosts.
BitTorrent Distributed Distribution
The third trend impacting computing and the Internet is the BitTorrent phenomenon. BitTorrent is a file-distribution system that is not dependent upon dedicated servers for downloads of software applications and data files. Rather, BitTorrent uses the distributed vastness of the Internet itself. Instead of downloading from one server, a BitTorrent download is broken up into pieces and downloaded from a multitude of peer computers. This can make the download much faster than conventional systems—if there are enough peers offering the file. The image below from Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BitTorrent_(protocol)) gives a visualization of the distribution process.
This image from Wikipedia illustrates the seeding and spreading of BitTorrent downloads.
The BitTorrent user downloads a .torrent file, which can be thought of as a map of all the pieces that make up the file. Then, using a BitTorrent reader (www.bittorrent.com), the user hooks up to seed computers (other users who have downloaded the file who are now offering the file). Pieces of the files then start downloading from the various computers (peers) on the Internet. The more seeds, the faster the file will download—up to the bandwidth available on the user's end. Once the file is downloaded, the user generally becomes a seed for future downloads. For popular files, the network of peers can become massive, offering maximum download speeds.
The advantages to BitTorrent are numerous. First, as each person downloads a file, and their computer becomes a seed, the speed of download and availability of the file increases. As the process continues, there are many more copies on the Internet for downloading. Second, the download process is not dependent upon one (possibly overworked) server and its available shared bandwidth. Download speed is often limited only by the user's available bandwidth. Third, very large files can be reliably downloaded because they are not dependent upon one server, or even one copy.
The process is controversial for a number of reasons. First, it can quickly consume a huge amount of bandwidth. Initially, BitTorrents tend to start slow, but they pick up speed and consume more of your bandwidth as more seeds are created and found on the Internet. This can considerably slow down the connection for other users on the local network or shared Internet connection.
Second, because it is excellent for downloading large (popular) files, it's been used to pirate and share music and/or videos with copyrights. There are a number of major entertainment companies that are working to figure out how to track and stop the BitTorrent downloads of their products. Lawsuits are ongoing. To help with this, PeerGuardian (phoenixlabs.org/pg2) is software that will protect you to an extent from malicious (or, in many cases, litigious) use of BitTorrent files against you by using an IP blacklist.
Third, when you participate in downloading a BitTorrent file, then it's expected that you in turn will let your computer become a seed for other downloading. This means that your computer will be accessed by other peers (and your bandwidth used). This is unsettling for many people (although this is commonly done with programs such as instant messengers and Internet telephone programs, i.e., Skype). In the BitTorrent process, reciprocation (seeding BitTorrents) by the user is part of the deal—and expected.
The Next Year
Whether cloud computing, virtualization and/or BitTorrent downloads will be the most important trends affecting computing and the Internet in the next year is open to debate. It is only in the last year that I have had the terms brought to my attention—and my understanding of all the implications is limited. Cloud computing is more of an ongoing evolution that says we are making the Internet a more integral part of our computing. Both virtualization and BitTorrent are specific techniques that may have major impact for years to come, shaping how we approach computing and the Internet. Or, maybe they are fads that will fade away as newer systems, techniques and metaphors make them obsolete.
Jack is the publisher of ComputorEdge Magazine. He's been with the magazine since first issue on May 16, 1983. Back then, it was called The Byte Buyer. His Web site is www.computoredge.com. He can be reached at
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12/26/2008
